Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029?
PoliticsAIGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIran 100%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 4:17 AM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
KalshiWill Tulsi Gabbard be Secretary of State before January 20th 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the final president of the United States be inaugurated on January 20th, 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be physically present in the White House at 2029 January 20th 23:59 pm?
Manifold MarketsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
PolymarketWill Palestine become a full member of the United Nations by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Market Description
- This market resolves based on whether the US conducts military operations in the listed countries between now and January 20th, 2029.
- The question was created following the January 3, 2026 US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
- For Venezuela specifically, only additional military operations beyond the January 2026 operation count toward resolution.
- This market focuses on significant new military interventions rather than routine expansions of existing commitments.
- The intent is to capture unprecedented, possibly unilateral action by the US, not proxy operations conducted through local forces.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Iran at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029? resolve?
- Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 19, 2029.
- How is Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Market Description