Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029?
PoliticsAIGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastIran 100%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 4:17 AM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Market Description
- This market resolves based on whether the US conducts military operations in the listed countries between now and January 20th, 2029.
- The question was created following the January 3, 2026 US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
- For Venezuela specifically, only additional military operations beyond the January 2026 operation count toward resolution.
- This market focuses on significant new military interventions rather than routine expansions of existing commitments.
- The intent is to capture unprecedented, possibly unilateral action by the US, not proxy operations conducted through local forces.
