Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastVoters that *somewhat* disapprove of Trump as President 90.1%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+19.4 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 5:36 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will James Talarico drop out?
KalshiWill John Cornyn endorse James Talarico?
KalshiWill Jasmine Crockett campaign for James Talarico?
KalshiWill James Talarico win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Democratic candidate James Talarico win Tarrant County in the 2026 TX-SEN election?
Manifold MarketsJames Talarico Starr County vote percent?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves according to the CNN Exit Poll (The 2026 Voter Poll by SSRS™) conducted for the 2026 Texas Senate election.
- 2026 United States Senate election in Texas - Wikipedia
- Previous election exit polls from Texas if you’d like to get some background info:
- Exit poll results 2024 | CNN Politics
- Texas 2022 Exit Poll
- Texas 2020 President exit polls.
