When will peaceful democratic transition of power happen in Russia for the first time?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before 2050 37.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before 2050 37.4%Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingFeb 20, 24, 3:35 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
So far at no point in Russian history has the power in the country transitioned to the opposition as a result of a democratic election.
- All power transitions happened either to a designated successor, or within the same party or political force, or via some sort of revolution or regime change.
- Will peaceful transition of power happen for the first time in foreseeable future?
- For this market to resolve positively, the following has to happen:
- A candidate not endorsed by the ruling party or force has to win in the presidential elections.
- They should assume office within the next few months after the elections.
