Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 91.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 5, 25, 7:56 PM UTCOct 5, 29, 7:56 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will peaceful democratic transition of power happen in Russia for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Luigi get away with killing the CEO by a jury nullification by my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWill the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?
KalshiXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.