KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2030 21%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$25.1K
High liquiditySpread
2.9 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping visit the US in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping visit the United States?
LimitlessXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWho will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Xi Jinping has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Guardianlocal news outlets with verifiable mastheads in TaiwanXi Jinpingofficial government sources of Taiwanofficial representatives or offices of Xi JinpingThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalCNNFox NewsMSNBCCNBC
- Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required.
- Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit.
- International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction.
- A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
- If Xi Jinping has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $116.3K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+11.5pt52.4%
- 27°C+1.0pt22.9%
- 25°C-3.0pt16.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.8K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.7pt97%
- September 30+0.5pt95%
+3 more outcomes
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan??
- Kalshi prices Before 2030 at 21% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan? resolve?
- When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Xi Jinping has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.