Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 22, 2026, 9:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 80%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 days ago
StaleOct 5, 23, 11:06 PMDec 31, 26, 2:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes80%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall88% match · verified | High | 93% | — | $393.1 | $77.1K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 80% | — | — | — | 34 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
0.5%5mo
+0.0%93%
7%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$567.7K
24h Vol$393.1
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.3k14.8%POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? — NoHugewinner9d ago
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? — NoHugewinner9d agoRelated Markets
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$2.2KYes: 77%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?
$517Yes: 6.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
$129Yes: 32.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US x China Military clash before 2027?
$15Yes: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
$0Before 2027: 5%
KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.