Will Nayib Bukele peacefully transition out of power before 2035?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionRussia / Ukraine8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 7:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 53.7%
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11
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 23, 4:49 PM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
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i.e. there is a new leader and Bukele is not in control of El Salvador anymore, and he basically agrees to not be in control anymore, without violence, such as due to losing an election.
- Independent electoral violence is not relevant, but if it's sponsored by him in an attempt to retain power, NO.
- EDIT: Not sure what I meant initially, but this illogically said "YES" in the original description.
- If he is still in control in 2035, NO
- If he is actually in control although not nominally (i.e. similar to Putin in Russia) it counts as still being in power, so NO
- If he loses power for another reason such as injury or death, YES.
