Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office 43.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office 43.5%Forecasters
126
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 24, 2:47 AM UTCJan 31, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will peaceful democratic transition of power happen in Russia for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping's succession be a nonviolent transition of power by my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia have a successful peaceful transition of power from Vladimir Putin to the next ruler(s)?
Manifold MarketsWill Nayib Bukele peacefully transition out of power before 2035?
Manifold Markets2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRules
In the light of the events of Jan 6, there are some fears that if Trump wins in 2024, the next election cycle in the US will be influenced by him.
- In this market I'm trying to explore different possible scenarios.
- The answers for the question are designed to a) be mutually exclusive, and b) cover all possible scenarios.
- In case I've missed some possibilities, please let me know in the comments, and I'll add respective options (hence the "Other").
- In case there's any disagreement the first answer that matches the events wins.
- Clarification regarding what counts as "opposition": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition.
