Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPermanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank 61.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
41
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 23, 4:20 PM UTCDec 28, 26, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Inspired by Scott:
- https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-103023
- "I can’t find any markets on the Middle East topic I’m actually interested in, which is Israel’s medium-term plan.
- Will they the named outcome? the named outcome? the named outcome? These all seem like bad options, but they’re very different bad options, and I haven’t seen much speculation about which is most likely."
- Close date may be extended if it seems like the situation hasn't settled down.
- Update 2024-10-12 (PST): The market will resolve as 'Permanently occupy Gaza like they're occupying the West Bank' unless the creator is convinced otherwise.
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
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- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
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- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)??
- Manifold Markets prices Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)? resolve?
- What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)? is scheduled to resolve on December 28, 2026.
- How is What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Inspired by Scott: