US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsSociety & Culture1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.9%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 26, 24, 7:15 PM UTCAug 1, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
a) "US city, county, or state": An incorporated city, county, or state within the 50 United States and District of Columbia.
- This also includes city-like things such as villages, towns etc which are distinct administrative divisions.
- Ie the colloquial use of "city".
- Unusual region designations which have their own governing structure and meet other criteria are included.
- National parks etc don't count. b) "Population": The most recent official population estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau prior to the name change at the point of the change becoming final and official.
- Judgment criteria:
