UK Autumn Budget 2026: will income tax rates, employee NICs and VAT rates all stay unchanged?
PoliticsOne-OffRegulation16dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.1%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 2:32 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
YES if the Budget raises none of: the basic, higher or additional rate of income tax on earnings; the main or additional employee NICs rate; the standard rate of VAT.
- Threshold changes, and rate changes on dividend, savings or property income, do not affect this market.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
