UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570?
Monthly16dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 2:32 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
YES if the Budget announces a personal allowance above £12,570 taking effect on or before 6 April 2028.
- Advisers split on this: S&W rated it moderate and BDO rated it low.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.