UK Autumn Budget 2026: will NICs be extended to rental, investment or pension income?
One-OffRegulationMacro & Economy16dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 2:32 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshold raised?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will income tax rates, employee NICs and VAT rates all stay unchanged?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will the pension tax-free lump sum be cut or capped lower?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will 0% VAT on home electricity be extended past March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?
KalshiWill New Zealand implement a carbon tax by 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
YES if the Budget announces a National Insurance charge, or a new levy described as equivalent to one, on property, investment or pension income.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
- The creator may trade in this market.
