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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?
Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?

Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?

RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics3y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 76%
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$0.5

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

76.0% / 80.0%

Spread

5.3%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

May 6, 26, 2:00 PMDec 31, 29, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes76%

Rules

If legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) has become law after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.

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Rules

If legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) has become law after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.