UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshold raised?
One-OffRegulationPolitics16dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.6%
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2
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binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 2:32 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
YES if the Budget lowers the 15% employer rate or raises the £5,000 secondary threshold for employers generally.
- Sector-specific reliefs resolve NO.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.