Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.6%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 6, 25, 12:18 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
Manifold MarketsMartial Law declared in USA by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsFrance declares state of siege (martial law) by which date?
PolymarketTrump declares election interference national emergency by which date?
PolymarketTrump declares AGI before the Pope?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump impose martial law?
KalshiRules
-Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.
- -Must be generally declared nationwide, or at least across a large region (it's okay if there are specific areas exempted from it, for example).
- -Must be declared by the Trump administration.
- If Trump is impeached and the next president declares martial law this will not resolve YES.
- -Invoking the Insurrection Act does not automatically equate to declaring martial law nationwide, but if the Insurrection Act was invoked and its powers used in such a way that consensus media reporting characterized the deployment as "declaring martial law" then yes, this could resolve YES.
- -Will not be resolved YES on a technicality, like "Trump declares a national day of mourning and martial law is declared across the country for 1 second for some archaic legal purpose" or something silly like this, idk what form this might take, but I reserve the right to not resolve YES based on some technicality like this.