Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.6%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 25, 12:18 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
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PolymarketRules
-Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.
- -Must be generally declared nationwide, or at least across a large region (it's okay if there are specific areas exempted from it, for example).
- -Must be declared by the Trump administration.
- If Trump is impeached and the next president declares martial law this will not resolve YES.
- -Invoking the Insurrection Act does not automatically equate to declaring martial law nationwide, but if the Insurrection Act was invoked and its powers used in such a way that consensus media reporting characterized the deployment as "declaring martial law" then yes, this could resolve YES.
- -Will not be resolved YES on a technicality, like "Trump declares a national day of mourning and martial law is declared across the country for 1 second for some archaic legal purpose" or something silly like this, idk what form this might take, but I reserve the right to not resolve YES based on some technicality like this.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump declares nationwide martial law??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Trump declares nationwide martial law? resolve?
- Trump declares nationwide martial law? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Trump declares nationwide martial law? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: -Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.