Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
One-OffUS PoliticsPolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 75%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 4, 24, 10:45 PM UTCFeb 1, 29, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PredictItRules
Martial Law following definitions laid out here.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States?wprov=sfla1
- This question is only about nationwide martial law, not about a local or isolated martial law declaration in one city or one state.
- There might be a situation where enough states are in martial law for it to de facto count as federal (e.g. all states of the contiguous United States).
- I'll let the comment section decide in that edge case.
- If trump declares martial law in only words, but doesn't act upon it.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)? resolve?
- Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2029.
- How is Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Martial Law following definitions laid out here.