PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
December 31 3%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 3%Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$102.3K
Liquidity
$135.2K
High liquidityOpen interest
$44.6K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31Spread
—
Comments
4
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 18, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · December 31
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
France declares state of emergency by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump impose martial law?
KalshiWill any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsTrump declares nationwide martial law?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
Manifold MarketsMartial Law declared in USA by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).
- Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count.
- If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
- A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.