Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 25, 10:16 PM UTCDec 31, 59, 11:15 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.
- Resolution criteria
- What counts as a declaration?
- A clear, public statement (speech, press release, published interview, or official post on a verified social‑media account) asserting that humanity has created an artificial intelligence with capabilities broadly equal to—or exceeding—those of an average human across most cognitive domains.
- Mere claims of “powerful AI,” “superintelligence on the horizon,” or marketing hype do not suffice; the speaker must explicitly confirm that AGI already exists.
- Evidence standard