Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAt least 44% 93.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+15.2 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 26, 12:50 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Troy Jackson get 50% or more in the first round of the Maine senate election?
Manifold MarketsTroy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)
PolymarketWill Troy Jackson win his hometown?
Manifold MarketsTroy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?
Manifold MarketsWill AOC endorse or appear at a campaign event for Troy Jackson?
Manifold MarketsWill Troy Jackson win the Maine general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExRules
The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Troy Jackson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places
- For the first round
- Resolves YES for all correct answers if the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Troy Jackson in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election is between the answer to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints.
- Resolves same as Kalshi.
- Resolves YES for all correct answers
