Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo Supreme Court Justice Leaves 80.7%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Mar 25, 26, 8:12 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
New Supreme Court justice confirmed?
KalshiAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketWill any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?
KalshiWill a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2026?
PredictItWill any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves based on whether a U.S. Supreme Court Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies/out for any reason and whether a replacement is confirmed by the Senate before the end of Jan 3 2027.
- The market resolves to one of three outcomes:
- the named outcome: A sitting Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies and the Senate confirms their replacement before 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
- the named outcome: A sitting Justice announces retirement/out but no replacement is confirmed by 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
- the named outcome: No sitting Justice out by Jan 3 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Supreme Court and Senate confirmation votes, verifiable at supremecourt.gov and senate.gov, and major media reporting.