Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo Supreme Court Justice Leaves 87.9%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 8:12 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves based on whether a U.S. Supreme Court Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies/out for any reason and whether a replacement is confirmed by the Senate before the end of Jan 3 2027.
- The market resolves to one of three outcomes:
- the named outcome: A sitting Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies and the Senate confirms their replacement before 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
- the named outcome: A sitting Justice announces retirement/out but no replacement is confirmed by 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
- the named outcome: No sitting Justice out by Jan 3 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Supreme Court and Senate confirmation votes, verifiable at supremecourt.gov and senate.gov, and major media reporting.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Supreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No Supreme Court Justice Leaves at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Supreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027? resolve?
- Supreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is Supreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves based on whether a U.S. Supreme Court Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies/out for any reason and whether a replacement is confirmed by the Senate before the end of Jan 3 2027.