What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 53.3% as of October 29, 2026.

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 53.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Aug 26, 26, 9:25 PM UTCJul 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by July 31, 2027, the Strait of Hormuz has resumed normal, unrestricted commercial operations and shipping transit volumes.
To ensure an unambiguous resolution, this market will resolve to YES if any of the following conditions are met for the month of July 2027 (or the latest available reporting month by August 15, 2027):
Shipping Volumes: The daily volume of crude oil and petroleum liquids transiting the Strait of Hormuz averages at least 15 million barrels per day (mb/d) over a monthly reporting period (compared to the pre-conflict average of ~20 mb/d), as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), or major market tracking firms (such as Kpler or Vortexa).
Vessel Transits: Daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz average at least 50 vessels per day over a 30-day period (compared to the pre-conflict median of ~73 transits/day), as tracked by IMF PortWatch or the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Consensus of Re-opening: Major global shipping lines (such as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd) have officially resumed standard, unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz without active naval blockades, as reported by reputable maritime outlets (e.g., Lloyd's List) or mainstream financial news (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg).