Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast7-9 53%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+33.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 29, 26, 7:50 AM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Te Pati Maori or Opportunity Party poll at 5.00% or more for the 2026 NZ election?
Manifold MarketsWill Opportunity party get 9.000% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ general election?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ Election: National Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: National Party # of seats?
Manifold MarketsRules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Opportunity Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
- If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
- This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Opportunity Party in this election.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
