Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029
PoliticsOne-OffChessUS PoliticsSportsLatin America2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99.4%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Feb 1, 26, 5:59 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029.
- Resolution will be determined by official Cuban government sources and international news reporting confirming Rubio's assumption of the presidency.
- The market resolves NO if this does not occur by a specified date, or if it becomes clear the event will not happen.
- In January 2026, President Trump responded to a social media post suggesting Secretary of State Marco Rubio could become president of Cuba, writing that it "sounds good to me!" Rubio, the son of Cuban emigrants born in Miami and the current Secretary of State of the United States, is one of the most hostile figures toward the regime in Havana and has systematically linked the fate of Cuba with that of Venezuela.
- In his 2012 memoir, Rubio recalled: "I boasted I would someday lead an army of exiles to overthrow Fidel Castro and become president of a free Cuba."