Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
GeopoliticsOne-OffScienceSociety & CultureManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57%
Forecasters
95
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 15, 23, 8:44 AM UTCJan 1, 60, 8:00 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.
- This market resolves based on the "popular science" consensus at the beginning of 2060.
- (i.e. the sort of thing reported in Wikipedia and posted on Twitter by the loudest scientists.) In the United States, or whatever culture is most similar to it if it's stopped existing by then.
- If I were to resolve this at the time of market creation, it would resolve to NO, since Wikipedia stated at that time:
- Today, the scientific consensus is that genetics does not explain differences in IQ test performance between groups, and that observed differences are environmental in origin.
- and other popular science resources tended to agree.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] resolve?
- Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2060.
- How is Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.