Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionMiddle East3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 74.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 24, 9:00 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
- This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
- For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
- For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
- The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
- Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. resolve?
- Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/