If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?
One-OffUS PoliticsHealth & MedicinePolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 90%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 4, 24, 11:15 AM UTCJan 7, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Conditional on Trump getting reelected in 2024, will he show signs of age-related mental decline at any time before Jan 6 2029.
- I will try to use external sources.
- For example, if there is widespread media discussion about his age.
- Clarifications:
- 1) If Trump is not reelected in 2024, this resolves N/A
- 2) If Trump is re-elected but does not end his second term (e.g. because he is impeached and removed from office), this resolves to whether there is significant discussion of age-related decline by when his term would have ended (Jan 6th 2029).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term? resolve?
- If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term? is scheduled to resolve on January 7, 2029.
- How is If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Conditional on Trump getting reelected in 2024, will he show signs of age-related mental decline at any time before Jan 6 2029.