Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 27, 26, 1:41 AM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWhat will Trump say this week?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+33.0pt49.5%
- Nicolás Maduro-34.1pt49.5%
- No Head of State1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20-1.6pt96%
- September 25-7.5pt84%
- September 30-3.0pt78%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.2pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $712.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59.6%
- D-House, R-Senate29.3%
- Republicans sweep-1.3pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump be reelected again?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Trump be reelected again resolve?
- Will Trump be reelected again is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.