If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffMiddle East1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.7%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 9, 26, 10:35 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed on the day of the 2026 Midterms, will the Democrats get control of both the House and the Senate.
- Strait of Hormuz closure will be based off of this website.
- If this website stops working I'll use my own judgement in picking another appropriate source or a shipping threshold.
- If the Strait is open on the day of midterms then the market will N/A. If the Strait opens for a time before the Midterms and then recloses and is closed for Midterms it will still resolve.
- Resolution on Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate will occur after reputable sources have called enough races to determine resolution.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms? resolve?
- If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed on the day of the 2026 Midterms, will the Democrats get control of both the House and the Senate.