If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionMiddle East2026 US Midterms8d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 67%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 9, 26, 10:35 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
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If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed on the day of the 2026 Midterms, will the Democrats get control of both the House and the Senate.
- Strait of Hormuz closure will be based off of this website.
- If this website stops working I'll use my own judgement in picking another appropriate source or a shipping threshold.
- If the Strait is open on the day of midterms then the market will N/A. If the Strait opens for a time before the Midterms and then recloses and is closed for Midterms it will still resolve.
- Resolution on Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate will occur after reputable sources have called enough races to determine resolution.
