If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2031?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
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LaggingOct 7, 26, 2:53 AM UTCJan 3, 31, 5:00 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2031?
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Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWill the Senate eliminate the legislative filibuster in 2026?
PredictItTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRules
Condition: the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).
- If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if, before January 3, 2031, the Senate changes its rules or sets a precedent so that ordinary legislation (or a whole category of it, such as voting-rights bills) can pass with a simple majority instead of needing 60 votes for cloture.
- Existing exceptions (nominations, budget reconciliation) and one-off waivers for a single bill do not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028.
