If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030?

BitcoinYearlyCoinbase Exchange Politics US Politics Election4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 74.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Oct 7, 26, 2:53 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Condition: the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).

If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if Coinbase's BTC-USD price at 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2031 (the daily close for December 31, 2030) is above $250,000.
Resolves NO otherwise.
This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028.
Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes.

Open markets

Bitcoin

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

↓ 75,000+28.3pt34%
↓ 72,500+7.9pt9%
↑ 82,500-17.0pt6%

+40 more outcomes

Total Vol: $15.7M
24h Vol: $1.8M

KALSHI

BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

$70,000 or above98.5%
$69,500 or above+1.0pt98.5%
$69,000 or above98.5%

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 29?

↓ 76,00010%
↓ 75,0002%
↓ 73,0001%

+13 more outcomes

Total Vol: $893.6K

POLYMARKET

Bitcoin above ___ on October 30?

72,000-2.0pt98%
74,000-4.9pt94%
76,000-16.8pt80%

+8 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1?

↓ 76,000+62.6pt75%
↓ 74,000+33.1pt36%
↓ 72,000+16.4pt18%

+14 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

↓ 70,000+13.5pt49%
↑ 90,000-10.0pt32%
↓ 65,000+9.0pt32%

+43 more outcomes

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030??: Manifold Markets prices No at 74.5% as of October 29, 2026.
When does If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030? resolve?: If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
How is If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Condition: the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/manifold/if-a-republican-wins-the-presidency-ccnS6OERUP

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp

Data API docs Connect an agent

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030?

Open markets

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 29?

Bitcoin above ___ on October 30?

What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1?

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Related Cryptos

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Open markets

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 29?

Bitcoin above ___ on October 30?

What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1?

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?