If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:55 AM UTCJan 3, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if, before January 3, 2029, the Senate changes its rules or sets a precedent so that ordinary legislation (or a whole category of it) can pass with a simple majority instead of needing 60 votes for cloture.
- Existing exceptions (nominations, budget reconciliation) and one-off waivers for a single bill do not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
