If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2031?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:53 AM UTCJan 3, 31, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).
- If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if, before January 3, 2031, the Senate changes its rules or sets a precedent so that ordinary legislation (or a whole category of it, such as voting-rights bills) can pass with a simple majority instead of needing 60 votes for cloture.
- Existing exceptions (nominations, budget reconciliation) and one-off waivers for a single bill do not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028.
