Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastUkraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia 60.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
683
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 23, 9:32 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.
- There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border.
- For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014.
- Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).
- The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again.
- The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.
