Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastneutral 43.9%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 2, 26, 9:49 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:48 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?
KalshiHow will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI 2027 ending will the next three years look more like?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.