Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 84.4% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.

How is Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-0.8pt4%
• October 31+0.2pt1%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$75.2M

24h Vol

$414.8K

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt22.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt13.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+0.1pt4.5%

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

• No97.5%
• Yes-1.0pt2.5%

Total Vol

$525.6K

24h Vol

$9.9K

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes-0.5pt77.1%
• No22.9%

Total Vol

$437.8K

24h Vol

$3.2K

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+2.5pt88.9%
• 2-2.0pt11.1%
• 30%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30+9.0pt54%
• December 3112%

Total Vol

$16.8K

24h Vol

$2.3K

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