How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms28dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2 22%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 4:26 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
[image]This market scores our statistical model's current most-likely U.S. Senate map — the modal projected winner of each of the 35 seats up in 2026.
- Each outcome is the exact number of those 35 seats the map gets wrong once the election resolves (0 through 10, plus "the named outcome").
- It is the self-calibration counterpart to the two third-party map markets:
- 53R map (@EnopoletusHarding)
- 53D map (@Jack1)
- The model expects ~5.6 of its own best-guess calls to be wrong — the election is genuinely uncertain, and even the most-likely map has real exposure to a correlated national swing (a fat "the named outcome" tail).