Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 3:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 11:53 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?
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Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any of the following events occur between September 20, 2026, and October 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC), as verified by reports from major international news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC):
- New Sovereign Combatant: A nation not currently engaged in direct state-on-state military strikes in the conflict (such as Pakistan, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia) officially declares war, activates a mutual defense pact (such as the Mecca joint defense agreement), or launches direct, attributed military strikes against another state (such as Iran).
- Weapons of Mass Destruction: The confirmed use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons by any state or non-state actor in the Middle East.
- New Ground Invasion: A ground invasion launched by Israel, the United States, or Iran into a sovereign country where they do not currently have ground forces actively fighting (e.g., an Israeli ground invasion of Syria, or a U.S. ground invasion of Iran).
- Consensus Escalation: A consensus of reputable global news sources explicitly characterizing a new, unprecedented military event in the region during this timeframe as a "major escalation" or "significant widening of the war."
