Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.4%
Forecasters
151
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJun 11, 25, 5:57 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump OR Marco Rubio visit Cuba before Trump’s presidency ends?
Manifold MarketsWhich political party wins the US presidency in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich political party will be the "tough on AI" party?
Manifold MarketsWill Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiWill the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).
- The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.
- A public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.
- Speculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.
- Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:
- Any candidates ultimately get on the ballot.
