Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe Democratic Party 78.8%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
142
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 11, 23, 12:15 PM UTCNov 8, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which US political party will be the more "pro-AI" party at the time of the 2028 presidential debates?
Manifold MarketsWhich political party wins the US presidency in 2028?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This is a "vibes" market not a policy analysis market.
- So things that indicate a YES would be one party's leaders talking about the dangers of AI while the other party says we need to race to beat China, regardless of the actual contents of legislation, regulations, orders, etc. I should hope this will be obvious by market close.
- This market will not resolve early, nor be extended.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $47.2K
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No+0.5pt73.3%
- Yes-0.5pt26.7%
- Total Vol
- $446.9K
- 24h Vol
- $32.9K
KALSHIChina vs Puerto Rico
- China+1.0pt78.4%
- Puerto Rico21.6%
- Total Vol
- $29.7K
- 24h Vol
- $29.1K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $25.9K
POLYMARKETWorlds 2026 Winning Region
- LCK (South Korea)+0.5pt66%
- LPL (China)25.2%
- LEC (Europe / EMEA)-0.1pt5.8%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+6.0pt70.6%
- Moonshot-5.2pt25.5%
- Z.ai+0.1pt2%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Unsettled Resentment vs. TEC Esports
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China vs Puerto Rico: Spread
- Valorant: TEC Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs
- Puerto Rico vs. China
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which political party will be the "tough on AI" party??
- Manifold Markets prices The Democratic Party at 79% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which political party will be the "tough on AI" party? resolve?
- Which political party will be the "tough on AI" party? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2028.
- How is Which political party will be the "tough on AI" party? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a "vibes" market not a policy analysis market.