Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 88%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 6:44 PM UTCNov 8, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES upon evidence of successful qualification by the FEC advisory committee. https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/registering-political-party/
- Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has noted that due to the possibility of fake filings, any filing must be confirmed as legitimate before the market will resolve YES.
- This may cause a delay in resolution after a filing first appears.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2028.
- How is Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES upon evidence of successful qualification by the FEC advisory committee. https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/registering-political-party/