Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2032 51.7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 25, 11:31 AM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How will Trump respond if China attacks, blockades, or physically annexes Taiwan before the end of his presidency?
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KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
An attempted invasion of the mainland would count for the purpose of this market.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China Blockades Taiwan Before...?
- Manifold Markets prices 2032 at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does China Blockades Taiwan Before... resolve?
- China Blockades Taiwan Before... is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is China Blockades Taiwan Before... settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An attempted invasion of the mainland would count for the purpose of this market.