Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 83.5%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 13, 23, 7:06 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?
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PolymarketRules
There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there.
- We will conduct a poll where we ask users to rate how commonly they interact with AI-generated pornography and resolve this question to YES if a majority of them have a significant commonplace interaction.
- The explicit NSFW movies refer to pornographic videography