Brazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 12:36 PM
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Luis Inácio Lula da Silva91%
Flávio Bolsonaro80%
Tarcísio Freitas4.5%
Romeu Zema76.4%
Ronaldo Caiado76.4%
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
An answer resolves YES if the named person personally appears (in-studio or via live remote feed) and speaks as a participant in at least one qualifying debate about the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, at any time from Jan 1, 2026 to Dec 31, 2026 (UTC).
- What counts as a “qualifying debate”
- A debate counts if it meets either Path A (TV) or Path B (YouTube exception), plus the broad invitation rule.
- Path A — Traditional TV debate (default)
- Produced and broadcast on linear TV by one of: TV Globo / GloboNews, Record, SBT, Band,
- RedeTV!, CNN Brasil, TV Cultura.