Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio de Janeiro (RJ)?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedUnverified resolution data: Douglas Ruas
Resolved: Oct 11, 2026, 2:46 AM
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Eduardo Paes5%
Douglas Ruas88%
André Ceciliano14%
Italo Marsili10.5%
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election by the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral - TSE).
- The resolution will be based on the official results published on the TSE website at https://www.tse.jus.br/.
- If a runoff election occurs, the market will resolve to the winner of that second round.
