Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 79.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 26, 9:59 PM UTCFeb 1, 29, 10:49 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Trump's new ballroom contains numerous underground structures which could be used for shelter against some sort of assault on the white house:
- https://xcancel.com/thothratm/status/2056829453569769523#m
- This market resolves Yes if Trump or the 2028 Republican presidential nominee uses the ballroom or any underground white house structures to shelter in during some crisis, such as a contested election, mass protests outside the white house, or a non-election related emergency which requires sheltering within the ballroom or beneath the white house.
- I will not bet in this market, in order to be as neutral as possible with the resolution.
