Current community forecast
No 94%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 17, 23, 7:29 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What percentage of dark matter is baryonic?
Manifold MarketsLeading dark matter explanation by January 2045
Manifold MarketsWhat is dark matter?
Manifold MarketsRussian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
By analogy to a high-bypass turbofan engine, which achieves high efficiency by giving a small push to a large quantity of inert air (or a wing, which gives an even smaller push to an even larger quantity of inert air), if one discovered a way to push/pull dark matter around, that could be used to achieve vastly more efficient space travel by having all this extra inert reaction mass that you don't have to carry with you.
- Energy is quadratically related to velocity, but momentum is linearly related to velocity, so you get a lot more momentum per unit of energy when you have a lot of mass to push around at low relative velocity.
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100 resolve?
- Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: By analogy to a high-bypass turbofan engine, which achieves high efficiency by giving a small push to a large quantity of inert air (or a wing, which gives an even smaller push to an even larger quantity of inert air), if one discovered a way to push/pull dark matter around, that could be used to achieve vastly more efficient space travel by having all this extra inert reaction mass that you don't have to carry with you.