Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 71.4%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 22, 4:44 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100
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KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter
- This resolves once we have a definitive explanation for dark matter that is not contested by any significant fraction of the physics community.
- In the event that the phrase "dark matter" comes to mean something else (such as our observational methods improving to the point where we can directly detect some forms of dark matter and we no longer call them "dark"), the 2022 definition is what will matter for the purposes of resolving this market.
- In the event that dark matter doesn't exist (e.g. modified Newtonian dynamics), this resolves N/A. I'll be pretty liberal in terms of what counts as "matter" though, in the event of disagreement over whether some new particle should qualify.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What percentage of dark matter is baryonic??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? resolve?
- What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter