Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028?
US PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 10, 25, 10:33 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
You should read the AI updates or the comments before participating
- Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Either 2026 or 2028 can satisfy YES (not both required).
- Early resolution plan after 2026:
- If there are no attempts/pressure in 2026 citing the event, creator plans to early‑resolve NO.
- If it clearly occurs in 2026 (e.g., multiple states with soldiers/state pressure at polling booths), creator plans to early‑resolve YES.
- If there's only an ambiguous 2026 attempt citing the event (e.g., heightened police presence but not military), will keep open and wait to see if 2028 shows a clearer military/state presence; 2028 need not explicitly cite the event if it's a continuation.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028? resolve?
- Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: You should read the AI updates or the comments before participating