Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastPuberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria 75%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 25, 6:06 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:41 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market (https://manifold.markets/Marnix/what-was-the-political-lean-of-the) has a very active and spirited discussion of whether Kirk's murderer was on the left or the right in general.
- But, since he was described as having been "very political" in recent years, I have decided to make a market about his opinions on a number of specific issues which tend to divide the United States electorate.
- As of market creation, I would resolve most of these N/A! I will give disproportionate weight to statements made in the past year.
- I'm setting the close date as 12/31/25, but I will very likely adjust it to coincide with the end of his trial, because I would guess most of the relevant information will come out before then.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been updated to 12/31/26 (previously 12/31/25).
- The actual close will be adjusted to coincide with the end of the shooter's trial, as most relevant information is expected to come out during the trial proceedings.